Climate change impacts on the agriculture sector of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: a comprehensive review with comparative regional analysis

Abstract

Climate change presents pressing challenges to Pakistan’s environmental and socio economic, systems with the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) emerging as one of the most vulnerable regions. Scientific assessments indicate that climate-induced hazards such as riverine and urban flooding, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), prolonged heatwaves, droughts, and the spread of vector-borne diseases, are projected to intensify in frequency and severity in the coming decades. In response to these emerging threats, Adaptation strategies are designed to minimize exposure and vulnerability of both human and ecological systems, while mitigation efforts focus on curbing greenhouse gas emissions through sustainable practices and technological innovation. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), a predominantly agrarian province of Pakistan, is increasingly vulnerable to the multifaceted impacts of climate change. This comprehensive review synthesizes historical climate trends and the growing frequency of extreme weather events-such as floods, droughts, hailstorms, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall-and their detrimental effects on agriculture. Using meteorological data, published studies, and government reports, the paper highlights region-specific vulnerabilities, including rising temperatures, pest and disease outbreaks, and shifts in cropping calendars. Graphical analyses and evidence-based assessments underscore the scale of agricultural losses and livelihood disruptions across KP’s diverse agro-ecological zones. The review further compares these findings with trends in other provinces of Pakistan and neighboring countries like India, Afghanistan, and Iran, providing a broader regional perspective on climate impacts and adaptation practices. The paper concludes with a set of targeted recommendations, including climate-smart agriculture, adaptive crop zoning, efficient water use, and integrated pest management strategies, aimed at enhancing resilience and sustainability in the province’s agriculture sector.