Spatial analysis of flash flood and Drought impact from Climate Change in Phongsaly District, Phogsaly Province, by using Geo-Informatics Technology and Modelling

Sanxay Boutsamaly; Chankhachone Sonemanivong; Soulyphan Kannitha; phoummixay siharath; Somchay Vilaychaleun; Khampasith Thammathevo; Amphayvanh Oudomdeth; Tavanh Kittiphone

doi:10.56556/gssr.v2i3.515

Authors

Sanxay Boutsamaly Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Laos https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8914-5082
Chankhachone Sonemanivong Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Laos
Soulyphan Kannitha Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Laos
phoummixay siharath Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Laos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9261-6387
Somchay Vilaychaleun Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Laos
Khampasith Thammathevo Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Laos
Amphayvanh Oudomdeth Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Laos
Tavanh Kittiphone Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Laos

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56556/gssr.v2i3.515

Keywords:

drought, flood, flash flood, model, climate change, IPCC

Abstract

A method for predicting the water resource in the region in the future to be used as a basis for mitigating the consequences is to study how climate change affects hydrology. The purpose of this study is to i). choose a global climate model that is suitable for the area, ii). rainfall run-off modelling, iii). drought and flood hazard index map. The SSP-126, SSP-245, and SSP-585 scenarios were chosen as the most appropriate global climate model among the four institutes, with efficiency criteria using the coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta and then calibrate the data with the Bias Correction Linear Scaling method which divides the analysis period into 2 periods for Near-Future and Far-Future from analyzing Rainfall Run-off Modeling from Rainfall Concentration 1-hours, 3-hours and 6-hours. It was found that the SSP-585 scenario in the Rainfall Concentration 1-hours model has the most dangerous area for very high risk until the end of the 21st century. For the analysis of drought indices SPI_1, SPI_3 and SPI_6 in Near-Future, it was found that the frequency of droughts is increasing according to the worst scenario, the scenario with the most drought is SSP-585 and in the Far-Future, the frequency of drought is decreasing according to the worst scenario, the scenario with the most drought is SSP-126.